New Computer Simulation Helps Better Predict Solar Flares
21 Oct 2014Solar flares may soon be predicted with the invention of an advanced computer simulation program.
For many years, scientists have been looking for a way to predict solar flares. Solar flares, which are a flash of bright light occurring over the Sun, can have a great impact even here on Earth. They affect different layers of the solar atmosphere, including the chromospheres, corona and photosphere. The radiation produced from solar flares can also disrupt satellite communications, which can have a direct impact on GPS navigation and GPS tracking.
By looking for ways to predict solar flares before they occur, scientists believe the impact will be lessened, particularly with these essential communications on Earth. Now, scientists from ETH Zurich believe they have the solution.
They have invented a computer simulation that may soon lead to the potential of predicting these solar storms before they occur, in order to better prepare for them.
Solar storms and solar flares can release more energy than is produced in a volcanic eruption, which is up to a million times as much energy. When the energy reaches Earth, it affects satellites, electrical plants, and radio traffic with all the excess energy coming from the sun’s surface. In 2003, there was a major solar flare that caused major power failure and communication failure in Sweden. In 2012, there was yet another large solar flare.
When the research team at ETH Zurich began building their model, they were actually looking at solar flares. They were looking at different events, such as earthquakes, avalanches, and the stock market. It turned out that the computer simulation was also great at predicting solar flares.
As the researchers began working, they realized there was a certain amount of time between two solar explosions and that the second solar flare was always stronger than the first. By using this theory, they were able to work with math calculations and models in order to create a computer simulation program that effectively estimates solar flares that might happen in the future.
Similar to predicting the stock market and earthquakes, the scientists looked at how solar flares interlock before reaching a particular value. This value is what must be reached before they explode. This is called criticality, and is what is used in the computer simulation.
A researcher from ETH Zurich said in a press release, “One example for this is a pile of sand being created by a trickle of sand grains. The pile continues to grow until, every now and then, an avalanche is triggered. Smaller landslides occur more frequently than larger ones. By organizing itself around a so called critical state, the pile maintains its original height when viewed over an extended period of time.”
Scientists have also pointed out that the predictions are currently just based on statistics, which is why they have not perfected the computer simulation yet for predicting solar flares.
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